Spencer Pratt could upend the LA mayoral race

Mayoral elections tend to be sleepy affairs. The contest in Los Angeles is anything but. Former reality television star Spencer Pratt, a Republican running in this nonpartisan election, has turned what might have been a predictable race into a genuinely competitive one. His campaign ads have racked up tens of millions of views and sparked a national conversation, injecting volatility into an otherwise conventional contest. Pratt is tapping into frustration with the state of the city — particularly the sluggish rebuilding effort following the Palisades fire. He is also channeling broader dissatisfaction with quality-of-life issues like homelessness, crime and the cost of living, which continue to weigh heavily on Angeleno voters. These concerns were front and center during last week’s debate, where Pratt, Mayor Karen Bass, and City Councilmember Nithya Raman “slugged it out.” The debate effectively narrowed the race to two credible candidates — Pratt and Bass — as Raman “came off as inexperienced, touchy, and unprepared” according to the Los Angeles Times. For his part, Pratt displayed a noteworthy mix of confidence and message discipline for a political newcomer. His attacks on Bass and Raman were pointed, but more importantly, he returned to a central argument: Los Angeles needs a change from Bass’s leadership and the governing approach it represents. It was not all good for Pratt. Bass put up a solid fight, often appearing more fluent on policy specifics. The Times noted that Pratt’s mockery of Bass and Raman could be seen “as possibly sexist.” That said, the debate offered Pratt a chance to build on the attention garnered by the viral ads, which have boosted his standing by speaking to the issues Angelenos care about. One ad, filmed outside the homes of Bass and Raman, contrasts their pristine neighborhoods with the remains of Pratt’s own home, which burnt down and has yet to be rebuilt. In it, Pratt slams Bass and Raman for “not living in the mess they created,” a message with obvious resonance in a city still grappling with fire recovery. The other ad, created with AI, leans into a darker, more provocative frame. It portrays Los Angeles as Gotham-like, ruled by out-of-touch progressives, symbolized by figures like Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), Bass, and former Vice President Kamala Harris. Donors are beginning to take notice. Pratt has raised over half a million dollars this year — more than either Bass or Raman — including a maximum contribution from Lakers owner Jeanie Buss. Political observers are also paying close attention. One Democratic strategist warned that the ads were so good that “Democrats should take this seriously.” Meghan McCain outright predicted that Pratt “is going to win.” Polling suggests there is, at a minimum, an opening for Pratt. A UCLA Luskin School survey from April put Bass at 25 percent, Pratt at 11 percent, and Raman at 9 percent, but that may not tell the full story. Critically, four in 10 respondents were undecided, a pool of voters large enough to propel Pratt into the November runoff, particularly in a low-information race. At the same time, there is a recent and instructive precedent for an outsider campaign combining savvy social media use and a populist message centered on arguing “my opponent is out of touch.” In New York City, Mayor Zohran Mamdani leveraged social media and a populist message to upset former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, despite having just 7 percent odds on the Polymarket gambling website six months before the election. In comparison, Pratt’s odds are at 28 percent, considerably higher. Although the contexts differ, the underlying dynamic of an outsider addressing voter dissatisfaction is familiar. And Bass’s position may be weaker than her frontrunner status suggests. Her approval rating — 31 percent — is 25 points underwater, according to recent polling. In that same vein, the above UCLA survey noted that among virtually every demographic — aside from Black women — Bass’s support was “outpaced” by either other candidates or the undecided vote. Further, the Luskin Center Quality of Life index shows that Los Angeles residents’ satisfaction is at historic lows, with the largest contributing factor being fire recovery efforts, an issue Pratt has made the cornerstone of his campaign. None of this guarantees a Pratt breakthrough. Los Angeles has not elected a Republican mayor since 1997. Bass has experience, incumbency, and the support of the city’s powerful labor unions in an overwhelmingly Democratic city. But the broader political environment is increasingly rewarding exactly the kind of candidacy Pratt is offering as a disruptive outsider: combative, media-savvy and sharply focused on perceived failures of the status quo. Whether the sentiments Pratt is tapping into translate into a general election berth remains the central question. But it is clear that he has already reshaped the race’s dynamics, turning what once appeared predictable into something far less certain. If this trend continues, it may be a much closer race than anyone expected. Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.” Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.