Putin is under pressure, and Russia is retreating – but don't get your hopes up too high.

On Thursday, June 11, Russia’s “special military operation” against Ukraine will have lasted 1,568 days—the same length as the first world war. Despite Vladimir Putin’s remark at the weekend that “I think that the matter is coming to an end,” his invasion will easily pass that grim milestone. Putin is, however, tacitly conceding that Russia is now on the back foot: militarily, economically, diplomatically, politically, and psychologically. The latter is exemplified by Volodymyr Zelensky’s brilliant trolling around the low-key 9 May victory parade, giving Russia “permission” to hold the celebration on Red Square. Brutal, pompous people like Putin hate mockery, all the more so when it is based on the truth. The annual commemoration of victory over Nazi Germany is one of the few occasions when the time and location of the Russian leader’s presence is entirely predictable, making it a tempting target for a Ukrainian drone or missile strike. Even if unsuccessful, this would have been a severe blow to Russia’s prestige. A big prisoner exchange and a PR victory in exchange for a temporary ceasefire was a good outcome for Ukraine. The balance of forces still remains in Kyiv’s favor. On the battlefield, Ukraine is innovating faster than Russia. It has compensated for its manpower shortage with highly-effective drone warfare, killing five Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian. It is winning the deep battle too, with long-range strikes that do serious damage to Russia’s economy and its war machine. The contrast between the two leaders is huge too. Putin lurks in bunkers and celebrates his country’s most important holiday with North Korean soldiers and the president of Laos. Zelensky travels freely across his own country and is a celebrity guest at world summits. Crumbs of comfort Given all this, it is tempting to be optimistic. The combination of Russia’s military setbacks, economic woes, social tensions, and public humiliation prompt comparisons with the German collapse of 1918, or Tsarist Russia’s in early 1917. Even barring that, it is clear that the war is not going to end on Russia’s terms. At some point, perhaps quite soon, Putin may have to start serious negotiations and make concessions rather than gain them. Or the war will end in a stalemate, a de facto frozen conflict: horrible for the Ukrainians stranded under Russian occupation, but still way short of Russia’s original war goals. If Putin thought that flattering or otherwise influencing Donald Trump would make the US deliver Ukraine, his investment has failed. But none of this is cause for comfort. Whatever the outcome, Ukraine will expect a great deal from the West in the years to come, while Russia will never forgive it. Nothing can bring the dead back, comfort the bereaved, or heal the maimed, on either side. If the Europeans failed to provide Ukraine with the support it needed in a wartime emergency, what chance is there of their governments providing it with the economic help, security guarantees, and political integration needed once the fighting stops? The gap between European expectations of Ukraine and Ukrainian expectations of Europe is gaping. Progress on meeting EU accession targets is slow. Experts involved speak bleakly of “zapyatlayu” – a pun on the Russian phrase for “in five years’ time,” meaning empty promises. Closing that gap will require extraordinary political will. Do you see it? I don’t. Nor will post-war Russia suddenly become an easy neighbor. At home, it too will deal with angry war veterans and score-settling. Abroad, it still needs enemies, not least European countries, which it already blames for Ukraine’s successful resistance. The first world war ended with an armistice and high hopes. Remember what happened next.