Starmer will state that "incremental change won't be enough" in a crucial speech aimed at preventing a leadership challenge – UK politics live.

Starmer to say ‘incremental change won’t cut it’ in major make-or-break speech to avert leadership challengeGood morning. The news this morning is full of speculation about whether or not there will be a Labour leadership contest. A better way of explaining the situation might be to say that a leadership contest is already under way; Angela Rayner issued what was in effect her manifesto late yesterday afternoon (although she hinted she would be happy for Andy Burnham to deliver it as leader), and Keir Starmer delivers what could be seen as a hustings speech this morning. Leaders can survive challenges. In 1995, John Major was widely seen as doomed, but Michael Portillo postponed a decision to stand against him. Major easily saw off a challenge from John Redwood (who was, in some respects, the Catherine West of his day), and Major survived another two years. In 2016, the vast majority of Labour MPs voted no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn, but he survived (because he was adored by Labour members, a benefit Starmer does not enjoy). In 2006, Tony Blair accepted he would have to go. But he was allowed to work his notice for a year; Gordon Brown and his allies were powerful enough to force him out, but not quickly. No one knows where this will end. It could end fatally for Starmer, but that is not a certainty. In his speech this morning, Starmer will say “incremental change won’t cut it.” According to extracts released in advance, he will say: "To meet the challenges that our country faces, incremental change won’t cut it. On growth, defence, Europe, energy – we need a bigger response than we anticipated in 2024 because these are not ordinary times. Strength through fairness. It’s a core Labour argument. And you will see those values writ large in the King’s speech. And you will see hope, urgency, and exactly whose side we are on." The problem Starmer faces is that for many people, including Labour MPs (like Josh Simons, who addressed this exact point in an article published yesterday), “incremental change” sounds like a definition of Starmerism. Here is the overnight story. And here is the agenda for the day. 10am: Keir Starmer delivers his speech. 12.30pm: Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM, is due to speak at the CWU conference in Bournemouth. Around lunchtime: Catherine West, the former minister, is expected to give her response to the Starmer speech. If she is not persuaded he can turn things around, she will formally start the process of trying to get the 81 names she needs to launch a leadership challenge. If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (between 10am and 3pm), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there. I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.