Trump's return to China: what has changed since his "friendly" 2017 visit.

Nine years after his lavish first visit to China as US president, Donald Trump is scheduled to head back to Beijing on May 13-15. With tensions over tariffs, Taiwan and tech rivalry still simmering, the summit will test whether the world’s two biggest powers can stabilize their fractious relationship. **What to expect:** * **Pragmatic deals over grand resets:** Don't look for a historic breakthrough. The focus is expected to be on extending the trade truce, locking in fresh Chinese purchases of American goods, and keeping tensions from boiling over. * **Big-ticket items on the table:** Watch for announcements on Boeing jets, agricultural products, energy deals, rare earth supply stability, and cooperation on fentanyl. * **Tough talks on Taiwan:** Beijing is pushing Washington to move away from "strategic ambiguity" towards explicitly opposing Taiwan independence and supporting reunification, according to sources. **Other thorny issues:** * The US is pressing China to use its influence on Iran to end the crisis in the Middle East. However, Beijing blames the US and Israel for the conflict and is resisting the sanctions. This mutual mistrust risks turning the Iran issue into a fresh source of friction during the summit. * Other thorny geopolitical issues might include North Korea and the South China Sea. **The bottom line:** * Short-term wins for US exporters are likely, but deeper structural problems, such as AI and other technological competition, supply chain security, and the Taiwan issue, are unlikely to be solved in one visit. **Pageantry meets personal chemistry:** * Anticipate the full red-carpet treatment, grand banquets, and plenty of Trump handshakes with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump is likely to highlight his "great relationship" with Xi, again. **Melania Trump's fashion diplomacy during her China visit:** **Flashback to 2017: the glamorous first visit:** * Trump was offered a "state visit-plus" reception on his November 2017 trip. He and Melania were treated to a private tour of the Forbidden City – including a Peking opera performance – as well as a lavish state dinner alongside Xi and first lady Peng Liyuan. * Trump openly praised Xi as a "very special man" and China as a "great country." * The two leaders have maintained a personal rapport in the years since, even as ties between Washington and Beijing have soured. * The trip produced headline-grabbing business deals worth more than US$250 billion, covering everything from energy projects and Boeing aircraft to agricultural products. Many involved letters of intent rather than firm contracts, but they gave Trump the "wins" he wanted to showcase back home. **Post 2017: a deteriorating relationship:** * **2018 trade war:** In the second half of 2018, less than a year after the visit, Trump slapped tariffs on hundreds of billions of US dollars of Chinese goods. Beijing hit back with tariffs of its own. The goodwill of 2017 quickly evaporated. * **Covid-19 fallout:** The emergence of Covid-19 in Wuhan, in late 2019, and the resulting global pandemic supercharged mistrust between the two nations. Trump’s attacks on Beijing’s handling of the outbreak – and his repeated use of the term "China virus" – deepened the divide. * **2020 consulate showdown:** A person receives a Covid-19 test in New York in early 2022. The pandemic marked a low point in US-China relations during the years between Trump’s two Beijing visits. Photo: AFPNancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan trip: US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile visit to Taipei in August 2022 triggered Beijing’s fury, prompting large-scale People’s Liberation Army drills around Taiwan and the suspension of key bilateral dialogues. * **2023 balloon drama:** In February 2023, the US Air Force shot down a high-altitude Chinese balloon that had been drifting across the US mainland. While Beijing claimed it was a civilian weather balloon blown off course, Washington characterised it as a surveillance device. * **"America First" policies:** Trump's broader "America First" policies, including trade protectionism and a more confrontational stance on international issues, have further strained relations with China. **Taiwan:** * Arguably the most watched issue. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force, and is committed by law to supplying it with weapons. Beijing has ramped up military patrols near Taiwan in recent years. Any signal from Trump on US support for the one-China policy will be closely watched.