Situation Briefing

HIGH Spain and Italy impose retaliatory border checks, straining Schengen

Spain began passport, nationality and visa checks on all arrivals from Italy at midnight Saturday, running through September 7, according to Spain's interior ministry. It's a direct retaliation: Italy imposed its own checks on travelers from Spain on July 30, citing the mass rush of an estimated 60,000-72,000 migrants into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta from Morocco, in which at least 72 people died. Madrid had given Rome a two-day ultimatum to lift its checks; Rome refused, saying it would not bow to "ultimatums or impositions" and would keep its measures until at least August 15.

Because Italy and Spain share no land border, the practical bite is mostly symbolic — falling on air and sea travelers rather than a flow of goods or people at a physical crossing. But the political signal is real: two founding EU members are now unilaterally checking each other's citizens inside what is supposed to be a passport-free zone.

Why it matters: Analysts at the Centre for European Policy Studies note that neither side can formally suspend Schengen membership, so this is a war of symbolism and domestic politics rather than a legal rupture — but symbolism drives elections. Ceuta's president says several thousand migrants remain in the enclave even after most returned to Morocco. The EU has so far limited itself to urging both governments to focus on "preventing irregular entries and senseless deaths," per an EU statement carried by ANSA, rather than mediating the Rome-Madrid standoff directly. Watch whether other member states start copying either government's playbook before the EU intervenes.

MOD Senate confirms Todd Blanche as attorney general, 50-49, then leaves for recess

The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche, Donald Trump's former personal defense lawyer, as the 88th attorney general in a near party-line 50-49 vote taken after 4 a.m. Saturday. Only two Republicans, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, voted no; Louisiana's Bill Cassidy — who lost his own primary to a Trump-backed challenger this year — cast the deciding yes vote after a weeks-long standoff. Mitch McConnell was absent. The Senate then adjourned for a five-week recess after also passing a short-term government funding bill running through December 11 and, separately, an 86-11 vote on a sweeping Russia sanctions package championed by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Blanche's confirmation fight centered on his handling of a so-called anti-weaponization fund tied to a settlement between Trump-as-private-citizen and the federal government he now leads — money that could flow to Trump allies who claim they were targeted by prior administrations, including some charged over January 6.

Why it matters: This hands Trump a Justice Department run by his own former personal attorney, the second confirmed AG of this term after Pam Bondi. The Senate punted Trump's push for emergency Iran-war funding and a contested voting bill until after the recess — meaning both fights resume in five weeks against a midterm backdrop. The passed Russia sanctions bill, by contrast, gives the White House more leverage on Ukraine negotiations without requiring further congressional action before the recess.

HIGH Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign mutual defense pact as US-Iran war grinds on

Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif signed the "Mecca Joint Defence Agreement" on Friday, a NATO-style pact stipulating that an armed attack on any one signatory is treated as an attack on all three. Per Hindustan Times' framing of the deal — distinct from the more clinical Reuters and CNN write-ups — the pact reflects a judgment that "the US umbrella is no longer enough" five months into the US-Israel war on Iran, which has drawn Gulf states and Yemen's Houthis into direct fire exchanges and disrupted shipping through Hormuz and the Red Sea.

The signing came the same week Iran and Oman said they'd agreed on shipping-route coordinates through the Strait of Hormuz, a technical step toward reopening it, even as Iran's parliament reportedly reviews a bill barring US, Israeli and other "hostile" vessels from the strait outright. The UN separately warned that Yemen faces its greatest risk of a major war reigniting since a 2022 truce, after Houthi missile and drone strikes on displacement camps in Marib killed at least two people Friday.

Why it matters: This is the clearest sign yet that regional powers are hedging against continued US unreliability rather than waiting for Washington to end the war. A Sunni-Muslim mutual-defense bloc forming mid-conflict changes the deterrence math for Iran and for any future US administration trying to manage the region. Brent crude's whipsaw trading this week — down 7% on the week despite Friday's bounce — shows how tightly markets are still tied to headlines about Hormuz, not just to the pact itself.

MOD Unconfirmed rumors swirl over Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's health

Hindustan Times reports "critical condition" and "imminent death" rumors circulating in Iran about Mojtaba Khamenei, who became Supreme Leader after a US-Israeli strike killed his father in the February 28 attack that opened the current war. He has made no public appearances since taking office and communicates only through written statements — more than a dozen so far, according to the Times of India. IranWire reported August 6 that two sources close to President Pezeshkian's administration say Khamenei has not met with any cabinet member since February 28, and that rumors of his imminent death are circulating "within the highest levels of the regime." Reuters reported in April that he suffered severe facial and leg injuries in the strike but was recovering and mentally sharp.

Why it matters: None of this is confirmed, and Iranian state media has not addressed the rumors directly — the ISW/CTP's daily Iran Update instead flags a related but distinct story: Mojtaba warning President Pezeshkian he would not be allowed to resign again, a sign of an internal power struggle over who controls war policy, not necessarily succession. If the health rumors are true, Iran's negotiating position on Hormuz and any peace framework becomes far more uncertain — a succession crisis mid-war, layered onto a regime that already appears divided between "pragmatist" officials open to a deal and a military establishment resisting concessions.

HIGH Black Sea shipping under fire from both sides; Turkey restricts traffic

Turkey is restricting commercial ship traffic into the Black Sea after a surge in drone attacks on civilian vessels by both Russia and Ukraine, Bloomberg reported Saturday. The trigger includes an August 3 drone strike near Novorossiysk that hit two Turkish-owned cargo ships, Nadezhda and LDR Yasar, wounding crew and prompting at least one Turkish shipping firm to suspend its Russia route outright. Ukraine's own Unmanned Systems Forces say they struck 12 more vessels of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between August 1 and 8. Ukraine has separately halted all agricultural exports via the Black Sea, its agriculture minister said, and reportedly promised Washington it won't strike Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure — a narrower carve-out that leaves most other shipping exposed.

On land, Russian strikes killed three people, including a child, near Kyiv early Saturday and wounded more than 80 across Ukraine overnight per Politico's count; Russia says it intercepted close to 2,000 drones approaching Moscow since August 1. Russian forces claimed control of Ivanovka in the Kharkiv region Saturday.

Why it matters: Turkey — a NATO member that has tried to stay a neutral conduit for Black Sea grain and energy trade — restricting its own waters is a sign the war's maritime front is now imposing costs Ankara can't absorb quietly. The situation's item history shows this escalating steadily since early August: from isolated drone hits on Turkish ships to a formal Turkish government restriction within a week. Watch for Montreux Convention pressure and whether NATO allies push Turkey to close the straits to Russian naval traffic entirely, a step Ankara has resisted throughout the war.

MOD Colombia's new hard-right president sworn in; US pledges $1 billion in security aid

Abelardo de la Espriella, a 48-year-old conservative lawyer who calls himself "The Tiger," was sworn in as Colombia's president Friday in Cali rather than Bogotá — a break with tradition meant to signal focus on the volatile southwest where armed groups are strongest. He vowed to "defeat narco-terrorists," cut government spending by up to 40%, and revive Colombia's oil and gas sector, explicitly rejecting outgoing leftist President Gustavo Petro's negotiated-peace strategy with armed groups as a failure. The US State Department announced late Friday it intends to work with Congress on a $1 billion security assistance package for the new government; acting AG Todd Blanche attended the inauguration as part of the US delegation.

Why it matters: Buenos Aires Times frames this explicitly as part of a regional pattern: de la Espriella joins Argentina's Javier Milei, Chile's José Antonio Kast and Peru's Keiko Fujimori in "a broad regional shift to the right" across Latin America, a framing Western wire coverage understates. Trump has called de la Espriella "smart, strong, and tough" — a marked reversal from Washington's cool relationship with Petro. The $1 billion package, contingent on Congress, would flow to a government explicitly abandoning the negotiated-peace approach the US itself pushed for years; watch how fast armed groups respond to the "profound transformation" de la Espriella promised in his inaugural speech.

LOW Caracas hit by daily blackouts as Venezuela crisis deepens

Venezuelans are taking to the streets over power cuts hitting the capital for the first time in seven years, the Financial Times reports, despite government pledges to invest in the grid. The blackouts land amid broader regional pressure on Venezuela — Latin American items in the feed reference continued talks between the government and opposition at Caracas's Meliá Hotel, and Colombia's new administration signaling a harder line toward Caracas than Petro's.

Why it matters: A grid failure in Caracas is both a domestic pressure valve and a regional signal: Venezuela's government has weathered sanctions and isolation for years partly by keeping basic services functional in the capital. First blackouts in seven years suggest that buffer is eroding just as a more hostile government takes power next door in Bogotá and Washington escalates its posture in the hemisphere.

Regional defense pacts are replacing US security guarantees

Two of today's stories — the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan pact and the US aid package to Colombia's new right-wing government — point the same direction from opposite motives. In the Middle East, US allies are building mutual-defense structures because Washington's commitment looks unreliable mid-war. In Latin America, a newly elected right-wing government is drawing closer to Washington precisely because it wants that backing. Both moves reflect the same underlying fact: American security guarantees are being actively renegotiated, not assumed, by governments on every continent this week.

Migration politics is fracturing intra-European solidarity, not just external borders

The Ceuta-driven Spain-Italy border dispute isn't a story about migrants crossing into the EU — it's about two founding member states checking each other's own citizens. RFI's coverage of Ireland's EU presidency scrambling to mediate, and Al Jazeera's framing of "how the far right weaponised the Ceuta crisis," both suggest this is now as much a domestic political tool within Europe as an external border-control problem. Watch whether Germany or France start floating similar unilateral checks against each other over unrelated migration flashpoints.

Markets are pricing an Iran deal that hasn't happened yet

The S&P 500's record close and gold's simultaneous rise are a strange pairing — normally a market pricing geopolitical resolution (stocks up) doesn't also see safe-haven demand climbing (gold up). Both are true right now because the underlying driver, Strait of Hormuz negotiations, keeps oscillating between "deal imminent" and "Iranian parliament reviewing a bill to bar hostile vessels entirely." Brent's 7% weekly decline despite a Friday bounce shows the market leaning toward eventual reopening. If talks collapse instead, expect a sharp reversal across all three assets simultaneously.