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CRIT Iran War Day 31: Trump Floats Kharg Island Seizure as Strikes Widen
President Trump told the Financial Times the US could "take the oil in Iran" and is weighing seizure of Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports. Iran retaliated against Gulf energy infrastructure, striking Emirates Global Aluminium's Abu Dhabi smelter and Aluminium Bahrain's facility — both sustained significant damage. A fire erupted at a Haifa oil refinery for the second time during the war, with Iran claiming responsibility. Trump claimed Iran agreed to "most of" a 15-point US demand list, but Tehran's foreign ministry called the proposal "unrealistic" and denied any direct negotiations.
The Houthis have entered the conflict, firing missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend and promising to continue attacks until strikes on Iran cease. This raises the spectre of a second maritime chokepoint at Bab el-Mandeb alongside the already paralyzed Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's grip is tighter than ever after a month of war. Energy historian Daniel Yergin called this potentially "the most severe oil disruption in history."
Why it matters: The war is expanding both geographically and in scope. The Kharg Island threat is the most direct signal yet that Washington may pursue regime change through economic strangulation. Iran attacking Gulf aluminium smelters marks a shift from purely energy targets to industrial infrastructure, broadening the economic damage across the region. The Houthi entry adds a second front that could sever Red Sea shipping. This situation has been tracked since Day 1 — coverage has expanded from 12 sources initially to 39+ items in the last 24 hours alone.
CNN · Washington Post · NPR · Al Jazeera
CRIT Oil Past $116 as Houthis Open Second Front
Brent crude crossed $116/bbl on Monday, up 55% in March — on track for the steepest monthly gain on record. The surge was driven by Trump's Kharg Island comments and the Houthi entry into the war. Shipping rates are up 20% in a single month per Chilean financial reporting. Airlines are cutting flights and raising fares as jet fuel costs spike. Malaysia warns food prices could rise 50% as fuel costs soar. Indonesia's President Prabowo pledged a faster energy transition in response.
The Indian Navy escorted an Indian-flagged oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz — a significant development reported by NHK, indicating that major Asian importers are now providing military escorts for commercial shipping. France rolled out targeted fuel aid as truckers staged protests in Paris. Latin American governments are scrambling to contain fuel price impacts on their economies.
Why it matters: The energy crisis is now a global economic event. The combination of Hormuz disruption and potential Bab el-Mandeb closure threatens two of the world's most critical shipping lanes simultaneously. Asian and Latin American sources (NHK, Nikkei, La Tercera) are covering the downstream economic impact more urgently than Western outlets, reflecting the outsized burden on import-dependent economies.
Bloomberg · CNBC · NHK (Japan) · Nikkei Asia
HIGH Spain Closes Airspace to US Military Over Iran War
Spain formally closed its airspace to US aircraft involved in Iran operations under 'Operation Epic Fury.' This extends PM Pedro Sanchez's earlier decision to block US use of two jointly-controlled air bases in Andalucia, from which around 15 KC-135 tanker aircraft redeployed to France and Germany in early March. US military aircraft from RAF Fairford must now circumnavigate Spanish airspace via the Bay of Biscay and Atlantic coast.
Why it matters: Spain is the most prominent NATO ally to actively obstruct US military logistics for the Iran campaign. Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo framed it as refusing to participate in "a war initiated unilaterally and against international law." This signals growing fractures within NATO over the legality and strategy of the Iran operation, and could encourage other European governments to impose similar restrictions.
Newsweek · Al Jazeera · The Olive Press
HIGH Trump Breaks Own Cuba Blockade, Lets Russian Tanker Deliver Oil
In an unexpected reversal, Trump said he has "no problem" with a Russian oil tanker delivering relief to Cuba despite his administration's effective fuel blockade. The Anatoly Kolodkin, carrying approximately 730,000 barrels of oil, arrived at the port of Matanzas on Monday. "If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that, whether it's Russia or not," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. China's foreign ministry urged the US to fully lift Cuba sanctions, pledging continued support.
Why it matters: The reversal exposes the tension between Trump's maximum-pressure Cuba policy and the humanitarian crisis his blockade has created. With the Iran war consuming US diplomatic bandwidth and global oil markets in crisis, maintaining a secondary energy confrontation with Cuba appears to have become untenable. Russia and China are both positioning themselves as Cuba's benefactors, gaining diplomatic leverage in the Western Hemisphere.
NPR · Washington Post · BBC
HIGH Zelensky's Gulf Tour: Billions in Defense Deals, Diesel Secured
President Zelensky completed a Gulf tour spanning Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan, signing 10-year defense agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar worth "billions." He secured more than a year of diesel supplies from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Over 200 Ukrainian experts have been dispatched to advise Middle Eastern countries on intercepting drone and missile attacks — battle-tested expertise from years of defending against Russian Shahed drones.
Zelensky proposed an energy truce with Russia, saying "Russia needs to stop striking our energy, in which case we won't be retaliating." He told reporters he does not believe peace talks are at an impasse and called the Middle East agreements "historic." He notably did not visit Israel during the tour, which he explained was a deliberate decision given the current conflict dynamics.
Why it matters: Ukraine is leveraging its hard-won expertise in drone defense to build strategic relationships in the Gulf at a moment when those countries are under direct Iranian attack. The diesel supply deals reduce Ukraine's energy vulnerability as both Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and the global oil crisis threaten its fuel supply. This is a significant diplomatic pivot for Kyiv, building non-Western security partnerships that could outlast the current war.
Bloomberg · CNBC · France 24
MOD Xi Invites Taiwan's KMT Leader to Beijing Ahead of Trump Summit
President Xi Jinping invited KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun to visit China from April 7-12, the first such visit in a decade, timed one month before Trump's scheduled summit in Beijing. Cheng "gladly" accepted and expressed hope the KMT and CCP would "work together to promote peaceful development of cross-strait relations." China refuses to speak to the government of President Lai Ching-te, whom it calls a "separatist."
Why it matters: Beijing is creating a diplomatic track with Taiwan's opposition that bypasses and undermines the elected government, just before engaging with Washington. Cheng has insisted on meeting Xi before visiting the US, drawing criticism that she is too pro-China. This sets up a complex three-way dynamic ahead of the Trump-Xi summit where Taiwan will be a central agenda item.
New York Times · Bloomberg · Japan Times
MOD Israel Advances Death Penalty Bill, Expands Lebanon Operations
The Knesset is set to vote Monday on a death penalty bill targeting Palestinians convicted of lethal attacks against Israelis. Military courts — which have jurisdiction exclusively over Palestinians in occupied territories — would be required to impose mandatory death sentences by simple majority. In parallel, Israel announced expanded operations in southern Lebanon, with strikes hitting Beirut suburbs and thousands of Lebanese trapped behind Israeli frontlines relying on humanitarian aid. A new defence budget drew criticism as "another indication of breach between people and government."
Why it matters: The death penalty bill has drawn condemnation from France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. UN experts have urged its withdrawal. If passed, it would be the first use of capital punishment in Israel's history and would apply asymmetrically — exclusively targeting Palestinians through military courts while Israeli civil courts would only cover crimes against Israeli citizens. The simultaneous Lebanon expansion suggests Israel is pursuing a multi-front escalation strategy.
Washington Post · New York Times · Al Jazeera
MOD DHS Shutdown Hits Day 44 — Longest Partial Shutdown in US History
The DHS funding lapse is now the longest partial government shutdown in US history at 44 days. TSA callout rates hit 55% at Houston Hobby, with security lines exceeding three hours at major airports during spring break. Hundreds of TSA officers have quit and thousands are calling out. Trump signed an executive order Friday directing DHS to pay TSA workers, with paychecks expected Monday, but Congress remains deadlocked — the House GOP rejected a Senate funding deal on Thursday. Congress is out of session until April 13-14.
Why it matters: The shutdown is compounding the Iran war's disruption to air travel. Airlines are already cutting flights and raising fares due to jet fuel costs; now passengers face hours-long security lines at the airport. With Congress out until mid-April and no deal in sight, the crisis will deepen. Trump's executive order to pay TSA is a band-aid that does not resolve the underlying funding dispute.
NBC News · CNBC · Guardian
LOW Myanmar's Junta Chief to Become Civilian President
Myanmar's parliament nominated coup leader Min Aung Hlaing as a vice-presidential candidate, clearing the path for him to become civilian president. Former spymaster Ye Win Oo replaced him as military commander-in-chief. Min Aung Hlaing has ruled Myanmar since his 2021 coup toppled Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government, triggering a civil war that continues today.
Why it matters: This is a cosmetic transition designed to legitimize military rule under civilian cover. NHK and SCMP both led coverage of this story from Asian perspectives, noting the move consolidates rather than diffuses junta power. It signals the military has no intention of genuine political transition despite years of international pressure.
SCMP · NHK (Japan)