Geopolitics — Week 2026-W29

Generated: 2026-07-19T07:20:09Z

Probability shifts this week

• US-Iran War: Sustained Ground Escalation — 0.08 → 0.30 (+22pp). The June 17 Islamabad MOU ceasefire has collapsed: Iran suspended its commitments July 18-19 and the US reimposed its Hormuz naval blockade July 14, ending the lull this assessment was last priced on. The first direct US combat deaths from Iranian fire since the war's opening days (2 killed, 1 missing, Jordan base, July 17) removed the casualty-free run that had underpinned the low posterior, and CENTCOM has now struck Iran for eight consecutive nights. The WSJ reports Trump convened a Situation Room meeting July 15 actively weighing seizure of Kharg Island with ground troops and bombing the Pickaxe Mountain tunnel complex — the most concrete ground-option deliberation since March, though he rejected a similar Kharg mission in April on casualty-risk grounds. Countervailing brakes remain real: a bipartisan War Powers Resolution passed both chambers in June (non-binding), Senate Democrats blocked the $1 trillion NDAA July 14 in protest of the war, and the White House's $87.6B war supplemental is reported "all but dead on arrival" in the Senate. (AP — US troops killed in Jordan, WSJ via tovima — Trump leans toward expanding operations, AP — Senate Democrats block NDAA)
• Strait of Hormuz: Full Reopening Within 60 Days — 0.18 → 0.05, RESOLVED (negative). The assessed window (through May 30) closed without full reopening; a partial reopening did occur under the June 17 MOU but collapsed within a month as the US reimposed its blockade July 14 and Iran suspended MOU commitments. Brent settled at $88.10/bbl July 17, up 14-16% for the week, with Hormuz tanker crossings back to single digits daily versus 100+ pre-conflict. Retired; escalation risk now lives in the ground-escalation assessment above. (AP — blockade reimposed, TechTimes/Reuters — Brent $88.10)
• NATO Cohesion: Formal Fracture by 2028 — 0.08 → 0.06 (-2pp). The Ankara summit (July 8) produced a formal Article 5 reaffirmation and pledges of €70B for Ukraine plus continued defense-spending increases (+$139B in European/Canadian core defense investment in 2025), despite Trump friction over Iran-war non-cooperation and Greenland. Trump himself called the summit "tremendous unity." Structural floor continues to hold even through the ceasefire collapse. (AP — NATO summit takeaways, Foreign Policy — Ankara declaration full text)

New assessments

None. Weekly mode prefers updating; the Iran war and NATO assessments already cover this week's live fulcra, and no new situation crossed the threshold for a fresh write-up.

Resolved this week

• Strait of Hormuz: Full Reopening Within 60 Days — outcome: negative. Window closed without durable full reopening; blockade reimposed and Brent back above $88. (AP — blockade reimposed)

New constraints

• First direct US combat deaths since war outset (political, enabling) — 2 US service members killed, 1 missing, Jordan base, July 17; cumulative US toll 16 killed, 430+ wounded. (AP/ABC News, Iran International — toll tracker)
• Situation Room deliberations on Kharg Island seizure / Pickaxe Mountain strike (geopolitical, enabling) — Trump-convened July 15 meeting weighing ground troops for Kharg Island and bombing a fortified nuclear-linked tunnel complex. (WSJ via tovima.com)
• Bipartisan War Powers Resolution passed both chambers, dismissed by White House (constitutional, neutral) — Senate 50-48 (June 23), first time since 1973 both chambers passed such a resolution; non-binding, White House says "no significance." (NPR, GovTrack roll call)
• Iran suspends June MOU commitments, new supreme leader calls Trump signature "worthless and invalid" (political, constraining) — Deputy FM Gharibabadi confirmation July 18-19; IRGC strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and a first direct strike in Syria. (NHK World, ABC News)
• Trump approval on Iran handling at record low, generic ballot D+6 to D+7 (political, constraining) — 31% approve Iran handling / 59% disapprove (Economist/YouGov, July 10-13); generic ballot averaging D+6.1 to D+7.0, widest of the cycle. (Washington Examiner, Nate Silver — generic ballot tracker)
• US naval blockade of Iran reimposed, Brent back above $88 (economic, constraining) — Reimposed July 14 after tanker attacks; Brent $88.10/bbl July 17 (+4.6% day, +14-16% week). (AP, NBC News)
• $87.6B war supplemental faces bipartisan resistance (economic, constraining) — OMB request June 24, $67.1B for Pentagon; CBS reports Senate passage in doubt. (CBS News, AP)
• Senate Democrats block $1T NDAA in protest over Iran war (political, constraining) — 50-46 vote July 14; Schumer: "NDAA cannot become a permission slip" for the war. (AP)

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

• 2026-07-21 — Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on $87.6B Iran war supplemental (fiscal, medium)
• 2026-08-17 (approx., outside 30-day window from UNGA prep) — n/a
• 2026-09-08 — UN General Assembly 81st Session opens; high-level debate Sept 22-28 (summit, medium) — outside 30-day window but flagged as next major diplomatic venue

What to watch

The fulcrum has shifted from a pure midterm-timing constraint to a race between escalation momentum and legislative/electoral restraint. The single clearest trigger to watch is any CENTCOM confirmation of a ground operation on Kharg Island or Hormuz-adjacent territory — that would be the strongest signal yet that the Situation Room deliberations have turned into action, and would justify a further upward revision of the ground-escalation probability. On the restraint side, the July 21 Senate Appropriations hearing on the $87.6B supplemental is a near-term test of whether Congress can materially constrain war financing beyond symbolic votes. Brent at $88+ with the blockade back in place keeps energy longs justified; a Kharg Island operation would likely push oil toward the bear case ($100+) given Iran's demonstrated willingness to strike Gulf-state infrastructure (Kuwait desalination/oil facilities) in retaliation. (TechTimes/Reuters)

Sources

• AP — How the US and Iran dragged each other back toward war — ceasefire collapse retrospective, US troop deaths in Jordan.
• WSJ via tovima.com — Trump leans toward expanding US military operations in Iran — Situation Room deliberations on Kharg Island / Pickaxe Mountain.
• AP — Senate Democrats block $1 trillion defense bill in protest over Iran war — NDAA blockade, Schumer quote.
• AP — US military reimposes blockade on Iranian ports — blockade reimposition, ceasefire unraveling.
• TechTimes/Reuters — Brent crude hits $88 as Iran extends war from Hormuz to Kuwait drinking water — Brent pricing, Hormuz tanker crossing data.
• NBC News — US reimposes blockade and steps up strikes — blockade and strikes detail.
• NHK World — Iran says commitments to MOU suspended — Iran suspension of MOU, Khamenei statement.
• ABC News — US military says 2 troops dead and 1 missing after Iran attacks base in Jordan — troop deaths, supreme leader rhetoric.
• Iran International — US military toll in Iran war rises to 16 killed, over 430 wounded — cumulative casualty tracker.
• NPR — In symbolic vote, Congress directs Trump to remove forces from Iran war — War Powers Resolution passage and White House dismissal.
• GovTrack — H.Con.Res. 86 Senate roll call — vote detail (50-48).
• Washington Examiner — Trump's popularity worsens with Iran ceasefire falling apart — Economist/YouGov approval numbers.
• Nate Silver — Generic Congressional Ballot tracker — D+6.1 average, July 17 update.
• CBS News — Trump administration asks Congress for $88 billion in supplemental funding — supplemental request detail, Senate doubt.
• AP — White House seeks $87.6B for Iran war costs — OMB request breakdown.
• AP — NATO summit takeaways — Ankara summit, Article 5 reaffirmation.
• Foreign Policy — The Ankara NATO Summit Declaration full text — declaration text, defense spending figures.

Macro & Monetary Policy — Week 2026-W29

Generated: 2026-07-19T07:30:00Z

Probability shifts this week

• Fed Funds: Probability of First Cut by September 2026 FOMC — 0.55 → 0.15 (-40pp). This assessment was last priced May 4, before two FOMC meetings and a full round-trip in the Iran war. Warsh's first meeting as chair (June 17) held unanimously at 3.50-3.75%, dropped forward guidance entirely, and Warsh withheld his own projection from the dot plot — of the 18 dots submitted, 9 showed at least one 2026 hike still to come, the plurality view having shifted from cuts toward hikes since April. June CPI (released July 14) surprised to the downside on the back of the short-lived June 18 ceasefire — headline -0.4% m/m, 3.5% y/y, core flat at 2.6% y/y — but that disinflationary window closed within a month: Trump reinstated the Hormuz naval blockade July 13-14, briefly floated then dropped a 20% transit toll, and the US has struck Iran for eight consecutive nights after Iranian missiles killed two US soldiers in Jordan. CME FedWatch prices an ~86% hold for July 29 but only a 41% hold for September — meaning the more probable resolution of that September decision is now a hike, not a cut. The fulcrum constraint (oil-driven inflation) has moved decisively against the May base case. (Federal Reserve — June 17 FOMC statement/press conference, Wolf Street — Warsh's first moves, CNBC — June CPI, techtimes — Hormuz ceasefire collapse)

New assessments

None. Weekly mode prefers updating; the existing Fed-cut assessment already covers this week's live fulcrum (oil-driven inflation vs. dot-plot hawkishness), and no new macro situation crossed the threshold for a fresh write-up. Note: the geopolitics domain digest carries a parallel, more granular Iran-war escalation assessment (0.08 → 0.30) that shares evidentiary basis with this update — see that digest for ground-escalation specifics.

Resolved this week

None. The Fed-cut assessment remains active through the September decision window; it was materially revised rather than resolved.

New constraints

• June 2026 dot plot hawkish skew, 9 of 18 see a 2026 hike (monetary, constraining) — Warsh withheld his own dot at his first meeting as chair; of 18 remaining participants, 9 project at least one further hike this year, a harder near-term constraint on easing than the April dissent count implied. (Wolf Street, Chase/JPM June FOMC recap)
• July 2026 Iran war re-escalation and Section 122 tariff cliff (inflationary, constraining) — June 18 ceasefire/MOU collapsed within a month; Hormuz blockade reinstated July 14, eight consecutive nights of US strikes on Iran, Brent round-tripping from ~$70 back above $80 intraday; separately, the Section 122 10% blanket import surcharge expires by operation of law July 24, an independent price-level swing factor. (AAF Shipment tracker, techtimes — Kharg Island threat)

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

• 2026-07-24 — Section 122 import surcharge expires by operation of law (unless extended)
• 2026-07-29 — July FOMC Meeting (CME FedWatch ~86% hold as of July 18)
• (September 16 FOMC tracked but outside 30-day window — now the live decision point, with only ~41% hold probability priced)

What to watch

The July 29 meeting is close to a formality at current pricing — the real test is September, where markets assign majority probability to a rate move and the balance of evidence (hawkish dot plot, Warsh's "too early to be satisfied" testimony, renewed Iran war) tilts that move toward a hike rather than the cut this assessment originally anticipated in May. Two swing factors between now and September: whether the current Iran escalation deepens toward the Kharg Island scenario under Situation Room discussion (bear case for the Fed call, bullish for oil and bearish for front-end Treasuries) or de-escalates again; and whether July/August CPI prints replicate June's oil-driven disinflation or reverse it now that the ceasefire has failed. The Section 122 tariff cliff on July 24 is a smaller but independent variable — its expiration would remove roughly 10 percentage points of blanket import-cost pressure just as the oil shock is re-intensifying, a mixed signal for the inflation path that the Fed will have to parse alongside energy prices.

Sources

• Federal Reserve — Transcript of Chairman Warsh's Press Conference, June 17, 2026 — June FOMC statement, hold decision, forward-guidance removal.
• Wolf Street — "Regime Change" at the Fed: Fed Chair Warsh Makes the First Moves — dot plot detail (9 of 18 hikes), withheld Warsh dot, taskforce announcements.
• Chase/JPM Wealth Management — What Happened at Kevin Warsh's First Fed Meeting as Chair? — SEP dot-plot summary, unanimous vote confirmation.
• CNBC — Consumer price index inflation report, June 2026 — June CPI print detail (-0.4% m/m headline, 2.6% y/y core).
• CNBC — Here's the inflation breakdown for June 2026 — Zandi quote on ceasefire-driven disinflation and re-escalation risk.
• techtimes — Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses: Brent Posts Biggest Daily Jump Since 2020 — blockade reinstatement, Brent/WTI price action, SPR level.
• techtimes — Kharg Island Seizure Threat Drives Crude Past $80 in Fifth Wave of Iran Strikes — Section 122 deadline linkage, Kharg Island threat detail.
• American Action Forum — Rekindled Conflict: Brazil Tariff and Iran — consumer gasoline cost estimate, Hormuz traffic data, transit-toll walk-back.
• Seoul Economic Daily — Fed Rate Outlook Swings as June CPI Cools but Officials Stay Hawkish — Warsh congressional testimony quote ("too early to be satisfied").
• CNBC — A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising — CME FedWatch/Kalshi probability tracking.
• BingX/CME FedWatch — Markets price 85.6% chance of Fed holding rates in July — July/September hold probability snapshot (July 18).
• BLS — The Employment Situation, June 2026 — June payrolls (+57,000), unemployment rate (4.2%).
• St. Louis Fed — Flash Report: Unemployment Falls, Job Growth Slows in June — payroll revisions, participation-rate detail.

Semiconductors & Technology — Week 2026-W29

Generated: 2026-07-19T07:44:47Z

Probability shifts this week

• China Domestic 5nm AI Accelerator Production at Scale by End-2027: held at 0.20 (no change). The fulcrum DUV multi-patterning yield ceiling is unmoved this week, but the equipment layer around it firmed further against China. ASML raised full-year 2026 sales guidance a second time (to EUR43-45B) on record Q2 net income (EUR2.918B) and a 30% EUV/DUV capacity-expansion plan for 2027, with South Korea now its largest revenue geography (43% of sales) as Samsung/SK Hynix absorb roughly two-thirds of annual EUV shipments -- widening rather than narrowing the equipment-access gap versus SMIC. A Dutch HCSS think-tank report ("Beyond Borders," covered by Nikkei/Digitimes July 15-18) rates semiconductors as the Netherlands' highest-strategic-risk sector for Chinese interference, reframing the still-unsubstantiated EUV-in-China allegation as one channel among several rather than a one-off breach -- a modest incremental input on the wildcard but no confirmed physical breach. Holding the prior at 20%. (SEC/ASML — Q2 2026 results, Nikkei Asia — China targets strategic sectors in Netherlands)

New assessments

None. Existing structural assessment (China 5nm AI accelerator scale) updated in place — see above.

Resolved this week

None.

New constraints

• Dutch HCSS report flags China interference leverage over ASML/Dutch chip sector (regulatory, constraining) — "Beyond Borders" report (published July 3, covered widely July 15-18) rates semiconductors as the Dutch industry's highest strategic-risk sector, citing cyberespionage, employee-enabled technology transfer, commercial exposure and raw-material dependence as overlapping channels of leverage, distinct from and broader than the still-unproven EUV-diversion allegation. (Nikkei Asia, Digitimes)

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

• 2026-07-22 — Samsung Galaxy Unpacked, London (product launch, low-medium) — Z Fold 8, Z Fold 8 Ultra, Z Flip 8; not a chip-supply event but a demand signal for foldable-display and mobile-SoC volume.
• 2026-07-23 — Intel Q2 2026 Earnings (earnings, high) — first print since the EUR5B/$5.7B Leixlip, Ireland Intel 3 expansion (announced July 13, ~30% of 2026 capex) and the XBM/ZAM HBM-competitor memory disclosure (July 14); read on foundry-turnaround durability.
• 2026-07-29 — SK Hynix Q2 2026 Earnings Call (earnings, high) — first print since its $26.5B Nasdaq listing; read on HBM4 shipment timing versus post-listing volatility.
• 2026-07-30 — Samsung Electronics Q2 2026 Earnings Call (earnings, high) — full detail behind the preliminary 89.4tn won operating-profit print that still triggered a 6.9-8.8% share slump on oversupply worries.
• 2026-08-26 — NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Earnings (earnings, high) — clean read on ex-China AI infrastructure demand and any reintroduction of China Data Center compute revenue.

What to watch

This week's incremental news flow (ASML's second guidance raise, the Dutch interference report, Intel's Ireland capacity add, and Chinese photonic-interconnect research) sits around the fulcrum constraint without directly moving it: equipment supply keeps concentrating toward Korea and Taiwan rather than diffusing to China, and the interference report describes a slow-moving leverage-building pattern rather than a confirmed breach of the DUV/EUV export-control wall. The unresolved US allegation that an ASML EUV tool may have reached China remains the single highest-impact wildcard on the assessment; continued non-substantiation keeps the 20% prior intact, while any confirmed physical finding would force an immediate re-rating of the yield-ceiling fulcrum. Nearer-term, the run of three back-to-back earnings prints (Intel July 23, SK Hynix July 29, Samsung July 30) is the more likely source of a probability move next week: SK Hynix's call is the read on whether post-IPO volatility reflects HBM4 shipment-timing risk or pure flow-driven overshoot, and Intel's print tests whether the Ireland capacity add and XBM/ZAM memory pivot are gaining real customer traction or remain announcements-only.

Sources

• SEC/ASML — Q2 2026 financial results press release — EUR9.3B net sales, EUR2.918B net income, second FY2026 guidance raise to EUR43-45B, 30% 2027 EUV/DUV capacity-expansion plan.
• Nikkei Asia — China targets strategic sectors in Netherlands, report warns, citing ASML — HCSS "Beyond Borders" report summary.
• Digitimes — Dutch report frames Chinese interference in chips, ports and aerospace as systemic threat — Digitimes commentary on the HCSS report.
• Intel Newsroom — Intel Invests EUR5 Billion to Expand Manufacturing in Europe — Leixlip, Ireland Intel 3 capacity expansion, ~30% of 2026 capex.
• Digitimes — Commentary: Samsung, SK Hynix in Washington's crosshairs over memory fabs — DIGITIMES analyst review of Intel Ireland expansion and US scrutiny of Korean memory fab expansion.
• SCMP — China's optical chip breakthrough boosts AI speed 100-fold using fraction of compute power — Peking University optical-interconnect research, lab-stage.
• SCMP — China team cuts 3D optical chip production time from hours to seconds — photonic-chip fabrication-speed research, lab-stage.
• Tricuatro/ASML — South Korea overtakes China as ASML's top market context — background on Korea/Taiwan EUV allocation shift versus China.
• Samsung Newsroom — Galaxy Unpacked July 2026 invitation — July 22 London event, Z Fold 8/Z Flip 8 launch.
• Wall Street Horizon / Intel Newsroom — Intel Q2 2026 earnings date confirmation — July 23 earnings date.

Energy — Week 2026-W29

Generated: 2026-07-19T07:55:00Z

Probability shifts this week

• Brent Crude: Probability of Settle Below $90 Within 90 Days — 0.40 → 1.0, RESOLVED (positive). The May 4 call resolved during the window: Brent hit $77.73 on June 18 after the US-Iran Islamabad MOU signing and fell as low as $72.44 on June 29, briefly under the $72.87 pre-war level. Project Freedom-style diplomatic follow-through (the MOU) delivered the clean de-escalation the bull case required. The thesis has since been superseded — the MOU collapsed in mid-July and Brent round-tripped back to $88.10 by July 17. Retired in favor of a new forward-looking assessment on $100 upside risk. (TechTimes/Reuters, Al Jazeera — MOU signing)

New assessments

• Brent Crude: Probability of Sustained Close Above $100 Within 60 Days — prior 0.30, fulcrum: US weighing Kharg Island ground seizure. Successor to the resolved $90 call. The fulcrum has moved from Hormuz-transit optics to three harder constraints operating simultaneously: a US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 43-year low with no fast refill path, P&I clubs pulling war-risk insurance cover on Hormuz transits entirely (tanker traffic near zero on multiple days this month), and live Situation Room deliberation over seizing Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports. China's swing-importer behavior — a 41% year-on-year cut in June imports — has been the main force keeping Brent under $90 rather than retesting the $130 wartime peak; that cushion inverts if Chinese restocking resumes into an already-tight physical market. (WSJ via tovima.com — Kharg Island deliberations, oilgasstoragenews — SPR at 316.5M bbl, The National — P&I clubs pull war risk cover, Middle East Eye — China import plunge)

Resolved this week

• Brent Crude: Probability of Settle Below $90 Within 90 Days — outcome: positive. Brent traded as low as $72.44 (June 29) within the assessed window before the ceasefire collapsed and prices reversed toward $88 by mid-July. See new assessment above for the successor call.

New constraints

• June 17 Islamabad MOU ceasefire collapsed; naval blockade reimposed (geopolitical, constraining) — The MOU that drove Brent to a $72.44 low broke down July 14-19; US reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports, Iran suspended MOU commitments. (AP — blockade reimposed, NHK World — Iran suspends commitments)
• War-risk shipping insurance and P&I war-cover withdrawal effectively closes Hormuz to tankers (geopolitical, constraining) — War risk premiums surged to 3-10% of hull value from 0.25% pre-war; multiple P&I clubs including Skuld have suspended coverage entirely; tanker transits near zero on several days in mid-July. (The National, Infomarine — traffic drops to zero)
• US SPR at 43-year low, exchange-structure release nearly exhausted (supply, constraining) — SPR crude fell to 316.5M barrels for the week ending July 10, lowest since April 1983; combined commercial+SPR stocks at 730.8M barrels, lowest since 1984; a full refill has been estimated at roughly $20B and several years. (oilgasstoragenews, BOE Report)
• China swing-importer behavior cushions price spikes but reversal risk builds (demand, enabling) — China cut crude imports ~41% y/y in June to a decade low, drawing down its own stockpiles; analysts warn a resumption of Chinese restocking could amplify rather than contain the next price surge. (Middle East Eye, NYT)
• US weighing Kharg Island ground seizure — 90% of Iranian oil exports at stake (geopolitical, constraining) — Trump convened a Situation Room meeting July 15 weighing ground seizure of Kharg Island and a strike on the Pickaxe Mountain tunnel complex; WSJ reports this is the most concrete ground-option deliberation yet. (WSJ via tovima.com, Al Jazeera)

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

• 2026-08-02 — OPEC+ ministerial setting September production levels (seven-country group, fifth straight monthly increase already in place for August)
• 2026-08-11 — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, August release (first since MOU collapse)
• 2026-08-12 — IEA Oil Market Report, August edition (first since blockade reimposition)

What to watch

The trade has flipped from "how fast does Hormuz reopen" to "how much of Iran's remaining export capacity survives the next month." Kuwait has already absorbed two consecutive days of strikes on its power, desalination, and oil facilities — a preview of what a Kharg Island operation or sustained campaign against Iran's own export hub would look like at scale, except aimed at the country holding ~90% of Iran's crude flow through a single point. The US no longer has the SPR cushion it had in April-May (43-year-low inventories, exchange barrels owed back at a premium), and P&I insurers have effectively closed Hormuz to tankers independent of any ceasefire headline — reopening now requires reinsurer confidence, not just a diplomatic announcement. China remains the wildcard: its 41% import cut is the single biggest reason Brent is trading in the high $80s rather than retesting $130, and any signal of resumed Chinese stockpiling into this supply picture would be the clearest tell that the bull case ($100+) is activating. Watch the August 2 OPEC+ meeting for whether Gulf producers are quietly building spare capacity in anticipation of a Kharg-driven gap, and the August energy-data releases for the first post-collapse supply forecasts.

Sources

• TechTimes/Reuters — Hormuz ceasefire collapses, Brent posts biggest daily jump since 2020, SPR hits 43-year low — MOU collapse, blockade reimposition, SPR context.
• Al Jazeera — Oil prices fall, stocks rally as US, Iran sign framework to end war — MOU signing, Brent $77.73.
• The National — Oil steadies and stocks rise on pause in US-Iran fighting — Brent $72.44 low, 19% two-week decline.
• CNBC — Oil rises after US-Iran peace talks abruptly postponed — 12M+ bbl overnight Hormuz transit under MOU, OPEC demand-peak comments.
• AP — US military reimposes blockade on Iranian ports — blockade reimposition detail.
• NHK World — Iran says commitments to MOU suspended — Iran suspension confirmation.
• CNBC — Oil rises as Kuwait attack threatens Hormuz supplies — Brent $88.10 close, Kuwait desalination strike.
• Kuwait Times — Iran targets Kuwait infra — Kuwait oil/power/desalination strikes, second day.
• oilgasstoragenews — Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls to 316.5M barrels — SPR level detail, refill cost estimate.
• BOE Report — Crude stocks in US strategic reserve fall to lowest since 1983 — combined stock figures.
• The National — Shipping insurance surges again as attacks intensify over Strait of Hormuz — war-risk premium data.
• Infomarine — Tanker traffic in Hormuz drops to zero as P&I clubs pull war risk cover — P&I club withdrawal.
• TankerMap — Hormuz tanker traffic stays depressed — daily transit counts.
• Middle East Eye — China's oil imports plunge 40 percent — China import data.
• NYT — Will oil prices soar as the US-Iran truce frays? The answer lies with China — China swing-importer analysis.
• WSJ via tovima.com — Trump leans toward expanding US military operations in Iran — Kharg Island / Pickaxe Mountain Situation Room deliberations.
• Al Jazeera — Could the US take control of Iran's southern islands? — Kharg Island seizure background.
• Economic Times — OPEC+ adjusts August production, next meet August 2 — OPEC+ 188kbpd increase, next meeting date.
• EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook release schedule — next release August 11.
• IEA — Oil Market Report release schedule 2026 — August 12 release date.